Clinton Strikes Back

Well, there you go — Clinton and McCain re-emerge. Game back on.

It’s funny watching all the talking heads on TV act totally stunned at Clinton’s upset. Hell, not like we called it any better. But Chris Matthews in particular has been pretty hard on her this whole campaign, and he’s clearly got some newfound respect tonight.

As to why Clinton won, there are a whole host of theories — Chuck Todd was even theorizing on MSNBC that the Bradely effect may have been more pronounced in NH’s private voting booths.

But Mark Blumenthal has a simpler, more compelling explanation:

Ron Brownstein has chronicled the critical importance of college educated women as swing voters in the Democratic nomination race. More than any other group, they moved to Clinton in the fall after her strong performances in early debates. Yes she appeared to be doing far less well among these voters in Iowa. If the polls missed a last minute shift to Clinton in New Hampshire, considering the heavily gender focused coverage of the last 48 hours of the campaign, the most logical place to look is among college educated women.

Combine that with the exit poll results showing 37% of the Democrats “finally deciding” for whom they would vote in the last three days of the campaign, and we have a pretty good first clue of what happened with the polls in New Hampshire this week.

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